April 29, 2009 7:49 AM
BEA released an advance estimate of -6.1%! As the previous post indicates, we expected only -4ish, with a slow revision to a more accurate number. The opposite. hmmm. Just when we thought the government was getting predictable by simply assuming the worst from it. Perhaps we have to rethink what is the worst. Could the worst be engineering crisis to sell Treasury debt?
Regardless, to trade on the advance number is probably a mistake.
More on this topic
(What's this?)
GDP growth outlook for CEE emerging markets.
(Emerging Index, 5/10/09)
Guest post: Economic recovery and the perverse math of GDP reporting
(naked capitalism, 5/7/09)
Diminishing Impact of Debt on US Economic Growth
(Stock Market and Economic Analysis, 4/28/09)
Forecast for GDP growth and unemployment.
(Emerging Index, 6/27/09)
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The number they decided to play games with was consumer spending.
Remember trash consumption is down 30%