BEA released an advance estimate of -6.1%!  As the previous post indicates, we expected only -4ish, with a slow revision to a more accurate number.  The opposite. hmmm.  Just when we thought the government was getting predictable by simply assuming the worst from it.  Perhaps we have to rethink what is the worst.  Could the worst be engineering crisis to sell Treasury debt?

Regardless, to trade on the advance number is probably a mistake.