The BLS reports today:

“In the 12 months ending in February, hires totaled 55.3 million and separations totaled 59.2 million, yielding a net employment loss over the year of 3.9 million. The loss resulted from total separations remaining level over the year, while hires trended sharply downward.“

This data is not seasonally adjusted, so it’s a little more reliable.  The interesting thing about this is the job reductions in aggregate over the past 12 months have been accomplished mainly through a form of attrition, rather than layoff.  In a simplified, but we think reasonable, view, firms can be seen as retaining existing workers but not hiring new workers entering the work force.  If, in aggregate, firms begin laying off existing workers in addition to not hiring new workers, a whole new wave of unemployment could result.

If firms come to the conclusion that production needs to fall faster than the rate at which new workers are entering the workforce, then separations will trend up along with hires in future BLS reports.