The BLS announced that employment fell by 263,000 for September:
Job losses continued in September, and the unemployment rate continued to trend up, reaching 9.8 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 263,000 over the month, and losses have averaged 307,000 per month since May. Payroll employment has fallen for 21 consecutive months, with declines totaling 7.2 million. In September, notable job losses occurred in construction, manufacturing, government, and retail trade.
The fact that the unemployment rate “only” rose to the expected level of 9.8% may ultimately be positive for the markets today, but as Calculated Risk points out, the preliminary benchmark payroll revision is minus 824,000 jobs- a very large, out-of-the-ordinary revision. The size of the revision may indicate the BLS is having difficulty maintaining a fiction.
Update: Even though the BLS may be having difficulty maintaining the fiction, they can still help Goldman Sachs out with advance looks at the release before everyone else. Yesterday, Goldman revised its estimate for employment to 250,000 from 180,000. What are the odds?







