DOL reported initial unemployment claims for this week at +27,000.

In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 640,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 613,000. The 4-week moving average was 646,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 651,000.

Well, it looks like our forecast of +70,000 was too pessimistic… It’s still too early to call a peak in claims though.  The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, dropped a small amount to 646,750. This is about 12,000 below the peak in early April. Goldman Sachs has said a decline of 30,000 to 40,000 in the four-week average is needed to signal a peak significant enough to herald the end of the recession…