As Denninger shows, it’s really hard to believe the BEA’s “estimate” that personal spending rose more than 1% last quarter when sales tax collections were down more than 8% for the same period.  According to the Nelson Rockefeller Institute of government:

The Rockefeller Institute’s compilation of data from individual states shows collections from major tax sources were $119.7 billion in the third quarter of 2009, compared to $134.0 billion for the same states during the comparable quarter of 2008. Overall, tax revenue declined by 10.7 percent in nominal terms. After adjusting for inflation, tax revenues declined by 11.3 percent in the third quarter compared to the same quarter of 2008. Personal income tax declines represented a $6.7 billion loss and the sales tax a $3.8 billion loss for the period. Corporate income tax saw the sharpest rate of decline at 19.4 percent, followed by the personal income tax and sales tax at 11.4 and 8.2 percent, respectively.