Northern Trust in its Daily Global commentary finds glimmers of hope in the new home sales report and durable goods orders released yesterday. Although this is now old news, it’s hard for us to see the “glimmer of hope” they see.  Sales of new single-family homes are down 43.8% in February from a year ago, after a 47.7% plunge in January. Sales of new homes have dropped 75.7% from the peak in July 2005.  The charts in the bigger picture hardly budged…

Northern Trust:

“The trough for new home sales appears to be January 2009…”

Regarding durable goods:

“Orders of durable goods increased 3.4% in February after a downwardly revised drop in January of 7.3% (originally estimated as a 4.5% decline). The 35.3% increase in orders of defense items and the 6.6% jump in bookings of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft stand out in the report. Orders of aircraft (-28.9%) and autos (-0.6%) dropped but that of machinery (+13.5%), computers (+5.6%), and appliances rose (+1.6%) during February. The main message is that the pickup in orders of durables is significant but consistent monthly gains will be necessary to declare that the factory sector has pulled out of the current doldrums.”

We agree, one blip on the screen … it’s probably more seasonal than anything else.