A followup on Minute Man’s post:

The Treasury has said that their conservative or “pessimistic” forecast, to which they assign no more than a 15% probability of occurance, includes an assumption that GDP growth will resume in the 3rd quarter of 2009.  Floyd Norris of NYT observes that this recession is, according to coincident economic indicators, worse than all the post war recessions except the 1973-75 one.  And… it is likely to exceed that benchmark soon.

Personal income is the one coinicident indicator (of four) that has performed this recession better than the others, but it is skewed by healthcare data that makes it appear much better than it really is.  The leading economic indicators index declined again in March, and has not risen in the past nine months. The government’s propaganda that suggests GDP will begin rising in 3rd quarter is hogwash. There is a 100% probability that the pessimistic forecast used by the government will be exceeded in severity.  The banks are experiencing for far more “stress” than the government wants us to know.