McKinsey Quarterly has an interesting piece on power curves – how they can be used to model events like natural disasters or even economic disasters.  You may have to register to read the article – but it’s free. Here’s just a snippet from their newsletter and one chart from the article:

The parallels between financial crises and natural disasters—such as earthquakes or forest fires—suggest that the economy, just like complex natural systems, is inherently unstable and prone to occasional huge failures that are very hard or impossible to foresee. Scientists and other proponents of this school of thinking are bringing new ideas grounded in complexity theory to economic forecasting, strategic planning, and risk management. This trend may have profound implications for policy makers, economists, and corporate strategists alike.