Zero Hedge has a post highlighting the fact that while continuing employment claims have risen lately, the rise has been much outpaced by the increase in total federal dollars flowing to the unemployed:

“In summary, over the past two years, while unemployment claims have climbed from 2,688 million in March 2007 to 6,157 in May 2009, monthly unemployment payments have skyrocketed from $3,238 million to $10,807 over the same time period.”

The Seattle Times runs an AP story (ht ZH reader) that partially explains the discrepancy, but casts doubt on the true meaning of the reported continuing claims number, without all of the facts:

Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended by the Obama administration’s stimulus package.

About 2.4 million people received benefits under that program in the week ending May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. That’s in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the 26-week program typically provided by states.

Thus, people can appear to “drop off”  the continuing claims number – about 148,000 dropped off in the most recent report – yet they are still unemployed and still receiving unemployment benefits…just from a different program. Note that the increase in the number receiving benefits under the extended program for May 30 as reported by AP was 102,000.  For that same week (May 30) the DOL reported a increase of 93,810:

“The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,127,413, an increase of 93,810 from the preceding week.”

The extended unemployment program is a federal , not state program. The sum of the two increases is what’s relevant:  195,810 “true” continuing claims for week ending May30.