TPC has a great post anticipating the 2Q earnings season.  This part seems to sum it up (I added the emphasis):

So we’re likely to see better than expected earnings, but a look under the hood will show much less earnings power than the EPS figures display.  The weak revenue trend should overshadow the EPS beats as the earnings season progresses.  Guidance will be equally important.  Q3 and Q4 expectations look far too optimistic to me and are pricing in a relatively strong economic rebound.  As recent economic data has shown, that’s an unlikely scenario, however, we could get more of what we saw last quarter due to bank earnings.  We’re almost certain to see a number of better than expected earnings results and tepid guidance due to analysts high expectations, but it’s very important to note that banks don’t give guidance.  Banks are also front loaded in the earnings season so they could set the tone early.  If they report better than expected numbers and don’t provide the outlooks that other big sectors will provide we could just be off to the races in the early weeks of earnings season, but don’t expect any gains to last. The true profit picture will be much more apparent when energy, materials, and retailers report later in the earnings season and expect the quality of their earnings to be very poor.

Meredith W. is buying Goldman and other rumors indicate Goldman will announce steller earnings from goverment-protected monopoly access to trading skimming tomorrow. The question of whether the bank-led earnings rally will fizzle this time, unlike what happened in 1Q, is still open.  However, we agree: IF the market looks under the hood, it will not like what it sees…