April 11, 2009 1:01 PM
We were curious about how the market does on the Monday after the Easter weekend, so we did a little research. The table below shows the closing prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (source Google) on the Thursday before Good Friday, the closing price on the next Monday after Easter and the gain (loss). For 45 years out of the 80 sampled, holding stocks over the Easter weekend proved not to be a good idea with an average loss for the weekend of (0.0018)…
| Easter | Good Fri | Thurs | Next Mon | Mon | |
| date | date | close | date | close | gain(loss) |
| 31-Mar-1929 | 29-Mar-1929 | 308.85 | 1-Apr-1929 | 300.4 | (0.0274) |
| 20-Apr-1930 | 18-Apr-1930 | 294.07 | 21-Apr-1930 | 288.23 | (0.0199) |
| 5-Apr-1931 | 3-Apr-1931 | 169.89 | 6-Apr-1931 | 169.72 | (0.0010) |
| 27-Mar-1932 | 25-Mar-1932 | 77.99 | 28-Mar-1932 | 75.09 | (0.0372) |
| 16-Apr-1933 | 14-Apr-1933 | 62.69 | 17-Apr-1933 | 61.59 | (0.0175) |
| 1-Apr-1934 | 30-Mar-1934 | 100.31 | 2-Apr-1934 | 101.96 | 0.0164 |
| 21-Apr-1935 | 19-Apr-1935 | 107.97 | 22-Apr-1935 | 110.27 | 0.0213 |
| 12-Apr-1936 | 10-Apr-1936 | 160.26 | 13-Apr-1936 | 160.76 | 0.0031 |
| 28-Mar-1937 | 26-Mar-1937 | 184.08 | 29-Mar-1937 | 184.09 | 0.0001 |
| 17-Apr-1938 | 15-Apr-1938 | 116.82 | 18-Apr-1938 | 118.99 | 0.0186 |
| 9-Apr-1939 | 7-Apr-1939 | 126.32 | 10-Apr-1939 | 124.03 | (0.0181) |
| 24-Mar-1940 | 22-Mar-1940 | 146.73 | 25-Mar-1940 | 146.25 | (0.0033) |
| 13-Apr-1941 | 11-Apr-1941 | 119.66 | 14-Apr-1941 | 118.89 | (0.0064) |
| 5-Apr-1942 | 3-Apr-1942 | 100.89 | 6-Apr-1942 | 102.5 | 0.0160 |
| 25-Apr-1943 | 23-Apr-1943 | 134.2 | 26-Apr-1943 | 134.34 | 0.0010 |
| 9-Apr-1944 | 7-Apr-1944 | 138.91 | 10-Apr-1944 | 139.11 | 0.0014 |
| 1-Apr-1945 | 30-Mar-1945 | 154.06 | 2-Apr-1945 | 155.86 | 0.0117 |
| 21-Apr-1946 | 19-Apr-1946 | 208.31 | 22-Apr-1946 | 207.99 | (0.0015) |
| 6-Apr-1947 | 4-Apr-1947 | 176.52 | 7-Apr-1947 | 175.39 | (0.0064) |
| 28-Mar-1948 | 26-Mar-1948 | 174.05 | 29-Mar-1948 | 173.65 | (0.0023) |
| 17-Apr-1949 | 15-Apr-1949 | 176.62 | 18-Apr-1949 | 177.16 | 0.0031 |
| 9-Apr-1950 | 7-Apr-1950 | 212.1 | 10-Apr-1950 | 212.29 | 0.0009 |
| 25-Mar-1951 | 23-Mar-1951 | 250.52 | 26-Mar-1951 | 249.13 | (0.0055) |
| 13-Apr-1952 | 11-Apr-1952 | 265.75 | 14-Apr-1952 | 264.1 | (0.0062) |
| 5-Apr-1953 | 3-Apr-1953 | 280.03 | 6-Apr-1953 | 274.1 | (0.0212) |
| 18-Apr-1954 | 16-Apr-1954 | 313.77 | 19-Apr-1954 | 311.78 | (0.0063) |
| 10-Apr-1955 | 8-Apr-1955 | 418.2 | 11-Apr-1955 | 418.77 | 0.0014 |
| 1-Apr-1956 | 30-Mar-1956 | 511.79 | 2-Apr-1956 | 515.1 | 0.0065 |
| 21-Apr-1957 | 19-Apr-1957 | 488.03 | 22-Apr-1957 | 488.79 | 0.0016 |
| 6-Apr-1958 | 4-Apr-1958 | 440.5 | 7-Apr-1958 | 440.09 | (0.0009) |
| 29-Mar-1959 | 27-Mar-1959 | 606.58 | 30-Mar-1959 | 602.65 | (0.0065) |
| 17-Apr-1960 | 15-Apr-1960 | 630.12 | 18-Apr-1960 | 630.77 | 0.0010 |
| 2-Apr-1961 | 31-Mar-1961 | 676.63 | 3-Apr-1961 | 677.59 | 0.0014 |
| 22-Apr-1962 | 20-Apr-1962 | 694.25 | 23-Apr-1962 | 694.61 | 0.0005 |
| 14-Apr-1963 | 12-Apr-1963 | 708.45 | 15-Apr-1963 | 711.38 | 0.0041 |
| 29-Mar-1964 | 27-Mar-1964 | 815.91 | 30-Mar-1964 | 815.29 | (0.0008) |
| 18-Apr-1965 | 16-Apr-1965 | 911.91 | 19-Apr-1965 | 912.76 | 0.0009 |
| 10-Apr-1966 | 8-Apr-1966 | 945.76 | 11-Apr-1966 | 942.42 | (0.0035) |
| 26-Mar-1967 | 24-Mar-1967 | 876.67 | 27-Mar-1967 | 873.72 | (0.0034) |
| 14-Apr-1968 | 12-Apr-1968 | 905.69 | 15-Apr-1968 | 910.19 | 0.0050 |
| 6-Apr-1969 | 4-Apr-1969 | 927.3 | 7-Apr-1969 | 918.78 | (0.0092) |
| 29-Mar-1970 | 27-Mar-1970 | 791.05 | 30-Mar-1970 | 784.65 | (0.0081) |
| 11-Apr-1971 | 9-Apr-1971 | 920.39 | 12-Apr-1971 | 926.64 | 0.0068 |
| 2-Apr-1972 | 31-Mar-1972 | 940.7 | 3-Apr-1972 | 940.92 | 0.0002 |
| 22-Apr-1973 | 20-Apr-1973 | 963.2 | 23-Apr-1973 | 955.37 | (0.0081) |
| 14-Apr-1974 | 12-Apr-1974 | 844.81 | 15-Apr-1974 | 843.79 | (0.0012) |
| 30-Mar-1975 | 28-Mar-1975 | 770.26 | 31-Mar-1975 | 768.15 | (0.0027) |
| 18-Apr-1976 | 16-Apr-1976 | 980.48 | 19-Apr-1976 | 988.11 | 0.0078 |
| 10-Apr-1977 | 8-Apr-1977 | 918.88 | 11-Apr-1977 | 924.1 | 0.0057 |
| 26-Mar-1978 | 24-Mar-1978 | 756.5 | 27-Mar-1978 | 753.21 | (0.0043) |
| 15-Apr-1979 | 13-Apr-1979 | 870.5 | 16-Apr-1979 | 860.45 | (0.0115) |
| 6-Apr-1980 | 4-Apr-1980 | 784.13 | 7-Apr-1980 | 768.34 | (0.0201) |
| 19-Apr-1981 | 17-Apr-1981 | 1005.58 | 20-Apr-1981 | 1015.94 | 0.0103 |
| 11-Apr-1982 | 9-Apr-1982 | 842.94 | 12-Apr-1982 | 841.32 | (0.0019) |
| 3-Apr-1983 | 1-Apr-1983 | 1130.03 | 4-Apr-1983 | 1127.61 | (0.0021) |
| 22-Apr-1984 | 20-Apr-1984 | 1158.08 | 23-Apr-1984 | 1149.5 | (0.0074) |
| 7-Apr-1985 | 5-Apr-1985 | 1259.05 | 8-Apr-1985 | 1252.98 | (0.0048) |
| 30-Mar-1986 | 28-Mar-1986 | 1821.72 | 31-Mar-1986 | 1818.61 | (0.0017) |
| 19-Apr-1987 | 17-Apr-1987 | 2275.99 | 20-Apr-1987 | 2270.6 | (0.0024) |
| 3-Apr-1988 | 1-Apr-1988 | 1988.06 | 4-Apr-1988 | 1980.6 | (0.0038) |
| 26-Mar-1989 | 24-Mar-1989 | 2243.04 | 27-Mar-1989 | 2257.86 | 0.0066 |
| 15-Apr-1990 | 13-Apr-1990 | 2751.8 | 16-Apr-1990 | 2763.06 | 0.0041 |
| 31-Mar-1991 | 29-Mar-1991 | 2913.86 | 1-Apr-1991 | 2881.19 | (0.0112) |
| 19-Apr-1992 | 17-Apr-1992 | 3366.5 | 20-Apr-1992 | 3336.31 | (0.0090) |
| 11-Apr-1993 | 9-Apr-1993 | 3396.48 | 12-Apr-1993 | 3428.09 | 0.0093 |
| 3-Apr-1994 | 1-Apr-1994 | 3635.96 | 4-Apr-1994 | 3593.35 | (0.0117) |
| 16-Apr-1995 | 14-Apr-1995 | 4208.18 | 17-Apr-1995 | 4195.38 | (0.0030) |
| 7-Apr-1996 | 5-Apr-1996 | 5682.88 | 8-Apr-1996 | 5594.37 | (0.0156) |
| 30-Mar-1997 | 28-Mar-1997 | 6740.59 | 31-Mar-1997 | 6583.48 | (0.0233) |
| 12-Apr-1998 | 10-Apr-1998 | 8994.86 | 13-Apr-1998 | 9012.3 | 0.0019 |
| 4-Apr-1999 | 2-Apr-1999 | 9832.51 | 5-Apr-1999 | 10007.3 | 0.0178 |
| 23-Apr-2000 | 21-Apr-2000 | 10844.05 | 24-Apr-2000 | 10906.1 | 0.0057 |
| 15-Apr-2001 | 13-Apr-2001 | 10126.94 | 16-Apr-2001 | 10158.6 | 0.0031 |
| 31-Mar-2002 | 29-Mar-2002 | 10403.94 | 1-Apr-2002 | 10362.7 | (0.0040) |
| 20-Apr-2003 | 18-Apr-2003 | 8337.65 | 21-Apr-2003 | 8328.9 | (0.0010) |
| 11-Apr-2004 | 9-Apr-2004 | 10442.03 | 12-Apr-2004 | 10515.6 | 0.0070 |
| 27-Mar-2005 | 25-Mar-2005 | 10442.87 | 28-Mar-2005 | 10485.7 | 0.0041 |
| 16-Apr-2006 | 14-Apr-2006 | 11137.65 | 17-Apr-2006 | 11073.8 | (0.0057) |
| 8-Apr-2007 | 6-Apr-2007 | 12560.83 | 9-Apr-2007 | 12569.1 | 0.0007 |
| 23-Mar-2008 | 21-Mar-2008 | 12361.32 | 24-Mar-2008 | 12548.6 | 0.0152 |
| 12-Apr-2009 | 10-Apr-2009 | 8083.38 | 13-Apr-2009 | 7956.66 | (0.0157) |
| Average | (0.0018) |
More on this topic
(What's this?)
Should You Be Worried About Google’s New Privacy Policy?
(Wall Street Daily, 1/26/12)
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
(Wealth Daily, 2/26/09)
First Three-Day Rally Since January Puts Dow Back up Above 7,000
(Money Morning, 3/13/09)
Is This The Bottom?
(Donaldson Capital: Rising Divid..., 3/20/09)
Here’s hoping that Tyler D’s discussion on quants isn’t true or at least doesn’t happen until Tuesday. Selling into this market rally while it last might be prudent.
So .. what are the odds for this being a “V-shaped” recession?