Karl Denninger at Market Ticker, based on his on assessment, is hitting 13 of 25 economic predictions he made for 2009, with half a year to go for more of his predictions to come true.  Since he’s shooting pretty good…what else is he predicting?  It gets pretty gloomy:

At some point reality must be faced, and we may as well do it now while we still have civil order.  Those politicians, numbering nearly all of them from both parties, who argue that this can be “avoided” or that we can “support housing (and/or asset) prices” need to be run out of town on a rail.

There is no way to prevent the unwinding of leverage when the carrying costs exceed income and the more debt we as a society take on in trying to do so the worse things will get in the end, as we are simply adding to the pile of defaults that must occur.

I am quickly running out of possible scenarios to prevent a severe deflationary depression from taking place.  By “severe” I mean 20%+ U3 unemployment, GDP contraction of at least 25%, and a possible loss of federal funding capacity leading to the immediate destruction of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, a 50% reduction of defense spending and near-complete-elimination of all other Federal Programs due to a “sudden stop” in the ability to fund Treasury issuance.  Yes, it could get that bad, and it could happen a lot faster than you think.

I wish there was good news – “green shoots” – that I could honestly find and report.  There are not.  There is only more obfuscation and fraud, which I have and will continue to chronicle here in The Ticker, not so much in the belief that government gives a damn, but rather so that historians have it available later and, if the collapse I believe is possible does materialize, the angry proletariat with pitchfork and torch will know where to properly direct their wrath.

Government needs to lock up the psychopaths that have run the asylum for the last 20 years and let adults into the room to rationally discuss the inevitable and how to best deal with it.  They’re refusing now, just as they did when Bush was President.  This is not a partisan debate – even having lost badly in November the Republicans are wasting time with the same old canards about “Tax and Spend” instead of attacking the problem at the root: fraudulent credit issuance, much of which they championed and enabled themselves.

Swamp Report agrees that the government is a big cause of our problem and an even bigger reason why it’s getting worse.  The current despotic government needs major overhaul before many more of Karl Denninger’s predictions come true…

Leave a Comment