Last week DOL reported the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 610,000, a decrease of 53,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 663,000. Yesterday, Zero Hedge posted a report by Structural Logic which anticipates another decline:
Last week, Swamp Report posted our own analysis of Easter week unemployment claims and found that the next week normally had a 50% move in the other direction. In other words, the results would indicate that unemployment claims to be announced tomorrow would reflect an increase of around 70,000. We’ll see tomorrow…
Capital Spectator asks whether we have reached a peak in jobless claims:
“This is a critical question because, as we’ve written, initial jobless claims are a valuable forward-looking indicator for estimating when recessions bottom out. In our March 6 piece, we looked at the historical record and found that initial jobless claims peaked concurrently with, or sometimes ahead of the formal end of recessions since the late-1960s.”
Capital Spectator’s conclusion is that its probably premature to conclude a peak yet:
“But while it’s tempting to pronounce the cycle has turned, such thinking is still premature for a number of reasons. That includes the view of some economists that last week’s numbers should be ignored because it came during a holiday week following Easter.”
This Easter question was intriguing to me, so I grabbed the DOL initial jobless claims data and compared it to the weeks beginning after Easter since 1967. Here’s a print of the data:
| Monday after Easter | change in claims |
| 27-Mar-1967 | -10000 |
| 15-Apr-1968 | -17000 |
| 7-Apr-1969 | 13000 |
| 30-Mar-1970 | 3000 |
| 12-Apr-1971 | 11000 |
| 3-Apr-1972 | -7000 |
| 23-Apr-1973 | -1000 |
| 15-Apr-1974 | -10000 |
| 31-Mar-1975 | -22000 |
| 19-Apr-1976 | -50000 |
| 11-Apr-1977 | 71000 |
| 27-Mar-1978 | -22000 |
| 16-Apr-1979 | -25000 |
| 7-Apr-1980 | 52000 |
| 20-Apr-1981 | -51000 |
| 12-Apr-1982 | 89700 |
| 4-Apr-1983 | 900 |
| 23-Apr-1984 | -4300 |
| 8-Apr-1985 | 68900 |
| 31-Mar-1986 | -29800 |
| 20-Apr-1987 | -39163 |
| 4-Apr-1988 | -12393 |
| 27-Mar-1989 | -14743 |
| 16-Apr-1990 | -56455 |
| 1-Apr-1991 | -64973 |
| 20-Apr-1992 | -46327 |
| 12-Apr-1993 | 14777 |
| 4-Apr-1994 | -3030 |
| 17-Apr-1995 | -38884 |
| 8-Apr-1996 | 11009 |
| 31-Mar-1997 | -22640 |
| 13-Apr-1998 | 5530 |
| 5-Apr-1999 | 2699 |
| 24-Apr-2000 | 3048 |
| 16-Apr-2001 | -50301 |
| 1-Apr-2002 | 19924 |
| 21-Apr-2003 | -35731 |
| 12-Apr-2004 | 46490 |
| 28-Mar-2005 | 659 |
| 17-Apr-2006 | -46224 |
| 9-Apr-2007 | 60048 |
| 24-Mar-2008 | -19319 |
| 13-Apr-2009 | -53000 |
| Average | -6479.05 |
| # negative weeks | 26 |
| Tot. wks in sample | 43 |
| Fraction negative | 0.604 |
As can be seen, the economists who question whether Easter weeks should be given much consideration may be on to something. About 60% of the weeks after Easter showed reductions in jobless claims with an average reduction of about -6500 jobs. But, it was a good excuse for the PPT to jump into the market again today…
Update: The average change in claims for the second week after Easter was +9206.14, with only 20 weeks of the 43 week sample being negative. Looks like we can reasonable expect a rise in claims next week.
