Fitch has released its Global 2008 RMBS Transition and Default Study and 2009 Performance Outlook. In its comment, Fitch focuses our attention in a backdoor sort of way on the troubles in the US (we added the emphasis):

“The outlook for the global residential market and RMBS ratings remains negative in 2009 as loan defaults are expected to increase while prepayments will slow considerably. Downgrades will continue to significantly outweigh upgrades in 2009 across all rating categories. However, Fitch Ratings anticipates that, other than the U.S, the majority of rating actions for RMBS will be confined to lower rated tranches and that highly rated ‘AAA’/'AA’ tranches will be able to weather the current downturn.”

The implication of course is that even the ‘AAA’ rated RMBS’s in the US banks will be downgraded significantly over 2009. The residential mortgage and housing price implosion in the US is only half to two thirds done.

“In 2009, residential markets across the US will continue to decline and cause further pressure on ratings. For the subprime and Alt‐A sectors, downgrades have been extensive and further downgrades may not be as widespread as in previous years, thus the Rating Outlook is Stable to Negative. For prime, where downgrades to date have been less prevalent, especially at the senior level, the Rating Outlook is Negative reflecting the poor housing market and wider economy.”