From Market Watch:

1.The jobs picture darkens

2. Energy prices continue to vault higher

3. Interest rates start to escalate

4. Contrarian indicators like the VIX reach new extremes

5. Corporate earnings results disappoint

Only 1 or 2 of the above could wind up being the market’s “justification” for taking the prices lower.

In a Seeking Alpha post on March 19, Great Trades described how the Tick 10 day exponential moving average was, of late, serving to warn of market pullbacks:

The below chart of the Tick 10-day EMA readings shows that extremely high positive readings have previously preceded sharp selloffs:

The current level of the Tick 10-day EMA is extremely high, increasing the likelihood of a strong pullback very soon.

We have tried to update this chart through today’s (March 24) trading, below.

tick-as-of-mar242

As can be seen, the salient feature of the updated chart is that the Tick 10-day EMA is still very high – indicating a possible retreat from the recent 7% gain.  However, technicals like these are just that – technicals. With the government likely involved in a variety of manipulative actions, some overt, some clandestine, technicals can break down even more than normal…

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