Here’s Barry Ritholtz, CEO of FusionIQ and author of Bailout Nation, arguing the crisis is over but the what is now a “normal” recession may not be declared over until fourth quarter or possibly the first quarter of 2010.

Here’s a link to a concise video of Nouriel Roubini’s current economic forecast that he did for Consumer Reports on April 17.

Basically, in the US, negative GDP  all 4 quarters this year and an average growth rate for all of next year of less than 1%…

Reuters writes that the 2009 U.S. tax season promises a large increase in first-time delinquent income taxpayers. Keep in mind this is happening when many states (at least 12 confirmed) are planning on increasing sales and income taxes substantially along the increases the Obama administration is planning for this year.

“Our calls are up 280 percent,” said Richard Boggs, founder and chief executive of Los Angeles-based Nationwide Tax Relief, a firm that helps delinquent taxpayers resolve tax issues.

“We’ve seen a huge rise in what we call the rookie delinquent taxpayer,” he said. “They are incredibly scared, and they have no idea what’s going to happen to them because, God bless them, they’ve never owed before.”

“Many withdrew funds from 401k and IRA retirement savings accounts before the permitted time, unaware of the punitive taxes and penalties this would generate, said Larry Walker Jr, president of the financial and tax services firm 4-Serenity Inc in Snellville, Georgia.”

Fortunately, as the article explains, the IRS has vowed “to be available to work with” those who miss the deadline for paying their taxes a little. Just look at all the help this elderly Austin, TX resident received:

“An elderly woman in Austin, Texas, who asked not to be named, said her $3,000 debt to the IRS grew to around $60,000 in taxes and penalties over 16 years despite the fact that she paid off the initial debt within six months.”

“The 61-year-old is disabled and suffers from multiple health problems. The IRS now takes $133 each month from her Social Security disability check.”

The problems people are having paying their taxes is evidence of how ineffective increasing taxes during recession really is. Not only does it stall recovery by taking away much needed consumer spending power and “wealthy” capitol, but it is completely ineffective because people can’t (and won’t?) pay! As final evidence of how the upcoming tax increases (on the wealthy) will fair, just look at what is happening now:

“Not only are America’s wealthiest suffering the largest losses in nearly a century, but the IRS will be seizing what little resources they do have left in record time,” said Richard Boggs, founder and chief executive of Los Angeles-based Nationwide Tax Relief.

“Some of my rich clients are having big problems,” said Lance Wallach, CEO and president of Veba Plan LLC, a financial consultancy firm. “Hundreds of them do not have liquid cash to pay bills.”

The wealthy will have to free up cash (many by taking heavy losses on down market positions) to pay Uncle Sam. They will in turn have less cash available for investment into small businesses, venture capitol, or the stock market. All of this spells further trouble for our already hurting economy.

The ADP National Employment Report^® is a measure of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 of ADP’s 500,000 U.S. business clients. The release for March begins as follows:

Wednesday, April 1, 2009, 8:15 A.M. ET
Nonfarm private employment decreased 742,000 from February to March 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from January to February was revised down by 9,000, from a decline of 697,000 to a decline of 706,000.

FT reports the ADP number for this month is foreboding for the Friday non-farm payrolls number:

“The ADP survey sent ripples of concern through markets on Wednesday that the US government’s monthly jobs data – seen as one of the most important indicators of the US economy’s health – would also be dire when released on Friday.

“It’s a terrible number. It is almost a loss of three quarters of a million jobs which is possibly the highest we have seen so far over the length of this crisis. Obviously [it is] foreboding ahead of [Friday’s] non-farm payrolls report,” said Matt Esteve, foreign exchange trader at Tempus Consulting.”

TPC goes on to say:

“…it is practically impossible for a sustainable bull market to form without earnings visibility and improvement…The bear market is as alive as ever.”

When we can see real growth in earnings again, we can justify higher PEs. But Pandit leaks a memo at Citi and POOF! no more problems or worries?  As if…