As we said in a previous post, the proposed program is designed to hide the fact that  the taxpayer is paying for all the losses on the assets and the bank bondholders are unscathed.  But according to this comment by John C. Halasz on James Kwak’s Baseline Scenario coverage of the Geithner plan , it’s even worse.  The comment is  reproduced below (we added the boldface type and did a little editing of it):

“I posted the following on this topic at Yves Smith’s site:

” So, say CITI has a $100 million MBS on its books at $80 million, given the risks and uncertainty, its market price is $30 million, but held to maturity it will yield $50 million. So CITI makes a deal with a hedge fund, which will bid $75 million for the MBS, of which only 3% is its own money, $2.25 million, and out of another branch of CITI, the latter writes a $!0 million CDS on the MBS to the hedge fund for a modest consideration and with cash settlement. SO CITI ends up taking a $5 million write-down and a $5 million CDS loss, the hedge fund ends up making a $2.75 million profit on a $2.25 million investment, about 120%, and the U.S. government ends up with a $20 million loss. Is it really that simple?”

Someone else responded correcting my math and sharpening my point, (though I get why the U.S. gov. loss is $22.75 million, I’m not quite sure why the CDS loss doesn’t have a counter-balancing 50% recovery):”

“John C Halasz,

Apologies, but I thought your post was so important I wanted to clean up a little math and amplify your point.

Again, apologies

I am SAC Capital. I get to be one of the bidders on bank assets covered by the program

Citi holds $100mm of face-value securities, carried at $80mm.

The market bid on these securities is $30mm. Say with perfect foresight the value of all cash flows is $50mm.

I bid Citi $75mm. I put up $2.25mm or 3%, Treasury funds the rest.

I then buy $10mm in CDS directly from Citi [or another participant(BOA, GS, etc)] on the bonds for a premium of $1mm.

In the fullness of time, we get the final outcome, the bonds are worth $50mm

SAC loses $2.25mm of principal, but gets $9mm net in CDS proceeds, so recovers $6.75mm on a $2.25mm investment. Profit is $4.5mm

Citi writes down $5mm from the initial sale of the securities, and a $9mm CDS loss. Total loss, $14mm (against a potential $30mm loss without the program)

U.S. Treasury loses $22.75mm

Great program.

Its just a scheme to transfer losses from the bank to the taxpayer with an egregious payout to a middleman (SAC) to effectively money launder the transaction.

You’ve also transmuted a $30mm economic loss into a $36.75mm economic loss because of the laundering. So its incredibly inefficient.

How did fraud and money laundering become the national economic policy of the US?

One would have to be a criminal to participate in this.”

Thank you John and SAC Capital!  Let’s watch which criminals step up to participate…

As a guest on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN show, “GPS,” Former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neal said

“if you can’t value the assets, please don’t buy them with my money.”

He calls for the banks to come clean and suggests that many are hiding the truth about their assets. The video of the interview with Mr. O’Neal can be viewed at Paul O’Neal interview

From the Institutional Risk Analyst:

“Apparently, banks that fail the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program stress test will not be broken up as required by law, but instead given more capital at taxpayer expense. This is the solution to the financial crisis embraced by President Barack Obama. There is no market discipline, no bad results for the bond holders who stupidly funded these giant derivatives-driven, risk-creation machines…The policy decision articulated this week by Bernanke and Geithner represents the largest transfer of wealth in American history, yet no legislation and been passed and no meaningful debate has occurred. The biggest danger facing the markets is that Ben and Tim still do not seem to have a clue what to do about the big banks — other than to write more checks against the public trust. The conflict over this decision to pass the cost to the taxpayer, between the Fed, Treasury and the Congress, on the one hand, and the Wall Street dealer banks is staggering, yet nothing is said in the Big Media.”

More on this topic (What's this?)
You Deserve This Dividend Windfall
What Do The Stress Test Results Mean?
Analyzing 5 Banks Passing The Stress Test
Read more on Bank Stress Tests at Wikinvest
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